My Mom: Too Poor for a Subsidy, Not Poor Enough for Medicaid?

In order to qualify for adult medicaid under Idaho law, a family of five needs less than $6180/year. Obamacare would extend that coverage to 133% of the poverty line, or $37,678.50/year. The State of Idaho would receive federal funding to cover 100% of the upfront cost for three years, and never less than 90% of the cost indefinitely. 

My mother lives in Idaho, a state that declined federal funding to expand medicaid. As one of the (not so) lucky few who are living just under the poverty line, yet still making nearly five times too much to qualify for medicaid for adult coverage (Idaho medicaid covers children whose parents make up to the poverty line, approximately), she is too poor for a subsidy, not poor enough for medicaid, but still mandated to purchase full price insurance coverage or to pay a penalty tax. She is furious. 

Yes, my mother (a life-long Republican) is furious at Obama and Obamacare for mandating that she purchase a product that she is convinced she doesn’t even need (she doesn’t go to the hospital for anything less than a broken bone, usually. Although, at 51, that could change eventually). But more than that, she is furious at her Republican state legislature, who, in their efforts to sabotage Obamacare, turned down federal funding to expand medicaid coverage. In other words, in their efforts to sabotage healthcare reform, they sabotaged a good chunk of their most vulnerable citizens. This problem is exacerbated because Republican states which have generally declined federal funding to expand medicaid, are generally on the high end of states with high poverty rates. 

According to Wikipedia’s List of US States by Poverty Rate, of the ten states with the highest poverty rates, only one voted for Obama in 2012. Expand that to the 20 states with the highest poverty rates and only 4 voted for Obama. Conversely, only five of the 20 states with the lowest poverty rates voted for Romney, and only 2 in the bottom ten (none in the bottom five). [Full disclosure: the District of Columbia had the highest rate of any state, and is heavily democratic. The three democratic states with the highest poverty rates, New Mexico, New York, and California, also have large minority populations and/or dense urban cities. Illinois and Michigan, home to Chicago and Detroit, are on the high poverty end of democratic states, and in the middle overall (#24 and #27)]

As a lifelong Republican, my mom has never been the biggest fan of Obamacare. But right now, she (along with me and my ten siblings) is furious at the callous indifference of the Republican state legislature in Idaho. As fiscal conservatives, we understand that a rural state government like Idaho’s can only afford so much in the way of social programs. But the state government took the check that the federal government wrote to try to help its most needy residents (some as low as one fifth of the poverty line), and tore it up for partisan gain. By all means, Obamacare is not perfect. But Republican efforts to sabotage the law are causing real harm to many of the most vulnerable among us.

Any liberal organizations that need a voice for an advertisement can get ahold of us by sending me an email at pdaines33@gmail.com. Anyone who lives in a state that has yet to expand medicaid, please call or email your elected officials!

New 2014 and 2016 Predictions

House of Representatives R 240 – D 190, D+3 to R+15

It looks increasingly less likely that Democrats will gain seats at all, let alone actually retaking the House of Representatives. The generic congressional ballot once more shows a slight edge for Democrats (D+.4 according to RCP’s average this morning) after three months of dead even or slight Republican lead. However, Democrats traditionally underperform this measurement by a percentage point or two, so current polling actually tilts Republican.

In my last predictions, I said that the biggest variable in this race was Obamacare. Several months later, and I now have some idea of how the Obamacare debate is likely to play out and shape the election. The picture is not rosy for Democrats. Early on, I predicted that as the botched rollout faded from view, and as the law started to normalize approaching the middle of the year, that people would start to realize that Republican predictions of total disaster were excessive, and that the unpopular (according to polls) laser-like Republican focus on complete repeal of the law (without even coalescing around a clear alternative) would bite them in the ass. Not enough to give democrats an edge, but enough to make the debate focus on the rest of the policy spectrum, where democrats have a clear edge (issues like immigration reform, ENDA, income inequality, the acceptability of shutting down the government and holding the global economy hostage…). This is indeed how things appear to be headed… with regards to soft democrats and democrat-leaning independents. Maybe this is even playing out with some soft Republicans. Unfortunately, 2014 is a midterm election. That means that the electorate with be composed of a lot fewer independents and leaners, and a lot more party activists and party bases. The way to win a midterm election is not to appeal to the middle (according to every political scientist who is writing anything), but to energize your base, motivating a high turnout rate. Democrats may well be winning the Obamacare debate, but their base just doesn’t care that much about Obamacare. Their base wanted a single-payer system, not this mess. Right now, the Democratic base wants Obamacare to stop dominating headlines and just go away. Right now, the democratic base is apathetic and depressed. The Republican base, on the other hand, is out for blood over Obamacare. Republican Governors have largely refused to implement Obamacare’s medicaid expansion and to set up state-based exchanges, thereby forcing their constituents to use the federal exchange. Fox News has had almost continuous negative coverage of Obamacare since its rollout. The law itself is complicated enough to contain fodder for Republican complaints–whether or not they appeal to independents and leaners, as long as they fire up the base–to continue to election day. In short, Obamacare provides a huge amount of passion to a huge chunk of the GOP base, in a way that the minimum wage and complaints about Republican obstructionism just don’t for the Democrats. Tack on to that Democrats tacit support of the President and Republicans uniform loathing, and you are looking at 2010 all over again.

Senate R 52 – D 48, R+3 to R+12

The map just looks terrible for democrats this year. Democrats won a lot of long-shot Senate seats in 2008, and now they have to defend them. 2010 is widely considered one of the, if not the single largest wave election in modern history. But Republicans had won the 2004 elections (when they reelected President Bush), so in the Senate they could only take so many seats. Democrats had just experienced wave elections for the Senate classes of 2006 and 2008, and so were able to hold on to the Senate after 2010. This year, of the 18 races that are considered at all competitive by anyone, 15 are seats currently held by Democrats. And the three pickup opportunities democrats are trying for are long shots at best. Considering the generic congressional ballot, Obama’s approval rating, and our expectations about the next eight months (see above), it seems increasingly likely that Republicans will, in fact, regain the majority in the upper chamber, and it is entirely conceivable that they could sweep as many as ten or twelve seats. If Democrats only lose three to five seats, they should count it a victory.

Democrat Pickup Opportunities (Tier one seats are likely to switch party. Tier two seats are tossups. Tier three seats are unlikely to switch. Tier four seats are very unlikely to switch. All other seats should be considered safe even in a strong wave election.)

Tier One

Tier Two

Tier Three
Georgia
Kentucky

Tier Four
Mississippi

All others
South Carolina 1
South Carolina 2
Alabama
Tennessee
Maine
Texas
Oklahoma 1
Oklahoma 2
Kansas
Nebraska
Wyoming
Idaho

Republican Pickup Opportunities (Tier one seats are likely to switch party. Tier two seats are tossups. Tier three seats are unlikely to switch. Tier four seats are very unlikely to switch. All other seats should be considered safe even in a strong wave election.)

Tier One
West Virginia
South Dakota
Montana

Tier Two
Louisiana
Alaska
Arkansas
North Carolina

Tier Three
Colorado
Virginia
New Hampshire
Iowa
Michigan

Tier Four
Minnesota
Oregon
Hawaii

All Others
New Mexico
Illinois
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Delaware
New Jersey

2016 Presidential Election D 358 – R 180

Best Case Republican Scenario: 352/186
Best Case Democratic Scenario: 439/99
Mean: D 312.5 – R 225.5
All Swing States R – D 275 – R 263
All Swing States D – D 358 – R 180
Swing States Split – D 316.5 – R 221.5

My predictions haven’t changed much. There are two fundamental factors at play here. One is the slowly but steadily improving economy. If you look at a chart graphing the monthly unemployment rates under Reagan and Obama, it is pretty much the same chart. When Reagan left office, the unemployment rate was around 5%, and George Bush Sr was elected in a landslide. Couple that with  our closely-watched demographic trends and the naturally high Democratic turnout in Presidential years, and the dominoes fall in the Democrats’ favor. Just for the heck of it, here is my breakdown of the individual states:

Likely Republican: 99 Electoral Votes

Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
South Carolina
Tennessee
Kentucky
West Virginia

Could Go Democrat, but Probably Won’t: 81 Votes

Texas – Texas is a majority-minority state. That means there are more racial minorities (who tend to vote heavily democratic) than there are white non-hispanics (which tend to be more heavily Republican in Texas than in the nation as a whole). Because of Texas’ booming Latino and Asian populations (Texas will gain 900,000 new eligible Latino voters from 2012 t0 2016, compared to 185,000 new white voters), the question is not if Texas will turn blue, but when.Personally, I am betting on 2020, but it could easily be as late as 2024, and if Democrats have a really good year, it is not inconceivable that Texas could flip by 2016.
Missouri – Missouri was once a bellwether state, like Ohio. As the South has grown increasingly Republican, Missouri has followed. But the last democrat to win Missouri was Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996. Considering the possibility that Hillary will be on the ticket in 2016, we can’t entirely rule out the possibility that she could outperform our current black president in the south, especially in Missouri and Arkansas, where the Clintons have a local legacy.
Arkansas – Arkansas is in the same boat as Missouri, albeit slightly more conservative. On the other hand, it is the state of which Bill Clinton actually was governor, and where Hillary actually taught. The Pryor Senate campaign is closely tied to the Clinton legacy in that state, so I would consider his performance this fall a predictor of how well Hillary could be expected to do in this state in 2016. I am not including the other southern state that Bill Clinton was the last to win, Louisiana, because he actually lost there in 1996, and it has only become much more red since.
Indiana – Indiana voted for Obama in 2008, a democrat landslide year, but not 2012, a democrat-leaning year. Indiana isn’t falling victim to any of the major demographic shifts tearing across the nation, so unless democrats have a serious swing election, expect it to stay in the red aisle.
Georgia – Georgia IS experiencing a demographic shift, and could turn blue by 2016. But once again, I think it will be close, but my bet is on 2020 barring a landslide election for the democrats.

Swing States: 83 Votes

Arizona – Arizona has an exploding Latino population, and it is just too close to call at this point. It really comes down to the national environment on election day, and how successful democrats are with their voter registration efforts / Republicans with their rebranding efforts.
Iowa – I have no reason to think that Iowa will stop being a swing state.
Ohio – Replace Iowa with Ohio.
North Carolina – North Carolina came close to voting for Obama in 2012, and should move 1-2% towards the democrats by 2016. It will still have a pink tint, but democrats won’t need a landslide election to turn it blue.
New Hampshire – Replace Ohio with New Hampshire.
Florida – Florida is a really interesting state right now. It is currently just to the right of the tipping point state, Colorado (but voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012). But, it will have a full 600,000 new eligible Latino voters by 2016. And, the Cuban population, which was a solidly Republican constituency a decade ago, is, for whatever reason, moving rapidly into line with the rest of the Latino population, thereby exacerbating the trend in Florida. Florida is still going to be a Republican target in 2016, but it will be a more difficult target than they are used to.

(Total Republican leaning states and swing states: 263 electoral votes)

Could Be in Play if Republicans Were to Have a Good Year: 89 Votes

Nevada – Nevada just isn’t a swing state anymore. It is blue, and demographically getting bluer. Unless Republicans successfully rebrand…
Colorado – Same boat as Nevada.
Virginia – Virginia is looking a lot like Colorado and Nevada, except that its shift is driven almost as much by the urbanization of its northern border with DC as with its growing minority populations. Expect Virginia to vote for Democrats often until Republicans successfully rebrand.
New Mexico – Same boat as Nevada, but stronger.
Wisconsin – This is currently Democrat territory. But, as the minority voice grows in the democratic party, white middle class voters in states like Wisconsin (this WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SOUTH, because white southern voters already vote Republican at around 90%. You just can’t get more loyalty than that from a demographic group…) may move towards the Republican party, thereby offsetting the democratic advantage. I suspect this will take a few cycles, but with the right candidate, in the right national environment, it is entirely conceivable that a Republican could be competitive here.
Michigan – Same boat as Wisconsin.
Minnesota – Same boat as Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania – Same boat as Wisconsin.

Safe Democratic: 186 Electoral Votes

Washington
Oregon
California
Illinois
New York
Vermont
Maine
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Rhode Island
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
DC
Hawaii