Trump’s poll numbers haven’t dipped yet post-McCain scuffle

A sixth national poll in a row just showed Trump in the lead, this one from Quinnipiac. It is also the fourth (out of five) recent polls to show Walker ahead of Bush.

The same poll also contained troubling news for Hillary Clinton.

Omi will lose the battle for #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 next week

The winds point towards a new #1 song atop the Billboard Hot 100 next week. Two weeks ago, it looked like there might be a battle this week as #2 “Can’t Feel My Face” per The Weeknd closed in on Omi’s tropical hit, “Cheerleader.” But, The Weekend’s inexplicable sharp and sudden sales withdrawal actually managed to widen the points gap from 9% to 15%.

But now, with the release of the track’s hot new music video, sales have skyrocketed for The Weeknd (in addition to the expected streaming gain). It is difficult to gage the number of streams the song will end up with this week, but considering that the audio version of the song alone is already generating over a million daily plays on youtube (globally), and considering the massive sales spike (the song is currently selling over 50% more copies per minute than “Cheerleader”),  I think it is safe to say that The Weeknd will sit on the throne next week, with the edge in all three chart metrics. 

Thought of the day: humans are fundamentally creatures of the present.

Reality is not reducible to words.

Reality carries with it a dynamic background and a set of subconscious invisible factors. We are influenced in a myriad of ways that our senses do not detect. Even our very perception of self is merely a lazy shortcut that bypasses an extraordinarily complex issue. The reality that is encoded in our neural networks and later retrieved is, indeed, comparable in its incompleteness and inaccuracy to our similarly flawed comprehension of the future.

Humans are fundamentally creatures of the present.

We do not know the past, and more than we know the future. We guess at the contents of the past in much the same way that we guess the contents of the future: we search for signs in the present. Yes, signs of the past can be encoded in our very neural networks as memories. But the single largest chunk of our existence consists of our own actions. Our future actions are not known to ourselves any more than they are known to anyone else. But, they can be guessed at based on our present indicators of our past actions and our present indicators of the patterns of behavior that we exhibit which are likely to continue into the future. In other words, we look inside our minds to determine what actions we are predisposed to take in response to various possible alternate futures. We determine the likelihood of those future circumstances and actions based on signs that we perceive in the present, just as we determine the circumstances that we were once in in the past based on present perceptions of signs. For example, although we might have some strong independent memories of pieces of important events we once experienced, the vast majority of these memories serve supplemental functions only, giving access to certain details of a memory that is initially sparked by the perception of something similar in the present. Even then, the memories are extraordinarily susceptible to tampering from later experiences, and they gradually accumulate random errors to boot.

Why is human memory so terrible, and why are we so disinclined to recognize how terrible it truly is?

Humans are fundamentally creatures of the present. We don’t need videotape-style memories. All we need is to survive and reproduce, in order to serve the whims of our one true master, the Cruel Truism. Survival and reproduction depend primarily on recognizing and averting danger. You recognize and avert danger by spotting patterns, remembering them, and by engaging in logical thought.

So, it makes sense that we would remember semantically where we went to school, the names of the people who were mean or nice to us, and the formula for our successful social interactions with others while forgetting the precise shade of green of a beautiful tree in the forest.

Implications

My question, going out of this is: what about clones? A clone could exist at the same moment in time as the original. Identical twins are essentially genetic clones. To a lesser extent, our kids are our clones. But, they are different people. They presumably have their own distinct consciousnesses. Some identical twins report having extraordinarily close connections, but there is no clear evidence that they have more than a relatively high chance of guessing what the other is thinking based on optimized facial expression recognition and common past circumstances/physiology. If a clone doesn’t have the same consciousness as the original, then doesn’t that imply that maybe the original doesn’t have the same consciousness as itself at different moments in time? The present consciousness would have no way of knowing whether it in fact experienced all of the things that memories would suggest.

What if humanity isn’t entirely sentient? We assume that everyone is sentient because we are sentient. But, what if we weren’t always sentient, or aren’t always sentient? What if we popped in and out of sentience? Are we really sentient when we are asleep? I remember dreams sometimes, but we only dream for a short period of our sleep. The rest of our sleep-time, it is like we didn’t even exist. We have regular chunks of our memory that are completely missing. What does it really mean to be sentient?

For those readers who are not new to the philosophy wing of my blog, I am referencing the “Invisible Gods” idea, the idea that humans are non-living shells (super high-tech cameras, kindof) that provide windows through which supernatural beings can peer into reality. If sentience were a supernatural being peering into reality, then it would be entirely plausible to think that we were not always or all sentient. Perhaps only some of us are sentient, and only sometimes. Our bodies make perfect sense as non-living creatures of the evolutionary biology branch of physics, necessary non-living, but complex results of the big bang. The body would still behave in exactly the same way as a non-sentient non-living swirl in the pool of reality. It would still talk and breathe and think and store memories. Then, when the supernatural being peered through the window, all prior memories would yield the illusion of continuity.

These ideas also make it much easier to conceive of time as a fourth dimension, equivalent to the three physical dimensions we perceive.

Conclusion

It would be really nice to see and understand how reality really operated. Unfortunately, none of us will ever be likely to do so, if it is even possible from a human perspective. But, we can at least poke holes in our current understanding of reality and then enjoy the sight as the less mentally deft among us scramble to fill them in. The truth is that reality DOESN’T make sense as we currently understand it. I have never heard a satisfactory explanation of existence (including all of the ones including some version of God).

So, just be happy, and hit that subscribe button on the right to keep reading my blog if you want to stay up to date with the tiny inklings that my brain occasionally processes.

Adam Lambert’s “Ghost Town” is actually still near peak sales

As earlier reported, Adam Lambert’s “Ghost Town” dramatically increased its sales over the weekend, going from around #80 to #40 on iTunes, and from around 8.5% of the sales of the #1 song to over 20%. [I get these numbers from kworb.net, which is the private website of some super computer-geek that somehow pulls information on sales and radio airplay directly from iTunes and other websites (possibly by hacking), which is actually accurate. It is a convenient compilation of most of the numbers (with archives!) that I could ask for.]. I ultimately was alerted to the fact that Adam was being featured on iTunes’ list of Hot Tracks, and that combined with other forces (such as Adam getting himself scheduled to perform on The Voice Australia) made the sales boom eventually make sense. But then, yesterday, the 20% started dropping like a rock. He is now at 13.09% of sales of the #1 song. I assumed that the boom was over.

But I was wrong. 

The number one song switched yesterday from Omi’s “Cheerleader” to The Weeknd’s “Can’t Feel My Face.” Omi has apparently been sitting stagnant on sales, or perhaps declining slightly. But, Omi’s share of sales of the #1 song have actually been dropping like a rock, from 100% some time yesterday, to 62.89% currently. If we assume that Omi’s sales have actually remained fairly constant over the past day, then we can calculate the true drop off of Adam Lambert’s sales. Adam’s sales stood at almost exactly 20% at the moment the #1 song switched. So, by simply multiplying 20% by .6289, we can figure out what percentage Adam would have if he were actually holding steady. Adam Lambert SHOULD be at 12.578%. Since his true value is 13.09%, it actually looks like he has gained slightly over the past day. Since Omi’s song is actually probably on a slight downward trend, it would be a mistake to assume Adam’s sales are actually growing, however.

Perhaps the best indicator of his sales is his position on the chart. At #43, it is near his peak of #40, and it is around the same location that it has been at for the past several days. That, combined with the earlier calculation, indicates that Adam’s sales are roughly constant.

So what are Adam’s sales actually likely to be for the next billboard tracking week? 

25k – 30k. For comparison, his sales for the prior charting week were around 15k. How do I know? Kworb has a separate feature that estimates weekly sales for songs. It’s most recent estimate for the tracking week ending July 30th is 26k. But, I don’t know what formula it uses, and Adam Lambert’s numbers have been a little bit crazy lately (it could be drawing a trend line incorrectly assuming that sales will keep increasing, for example…). Omi’s sales should be easily estimated, however, considering that it is a slowly declining, well-established hit. It’s estimated sales are 154k. In the middle of the tracking week, Adam Lambert’s sales were about 20% of Omi’s sales, so that implied weekly sales of about 30.8K. However, Adam was only at #83 on the first day of the tracking week (just before the boom), so that drops off about half a day’s sales (2.2K), and I am still not convinced that the sales boom will not slow before the week ends. So, that is why my estimate is a conservative 25K-30K. But that is still an increase of 66% to 100% of sales over the prior week, which could translate into a serious leap on the Billboard Hot 100.

So, where should I expect to see “Ghost Town” on next week’s Hot 100?

Roughly, I would say perhaps around #50-#60. “Ghost Town” is currently at #71 on the Hot 100. It isn’t charting on Radio Songs, but Kworb conveniently compiles data to tell us that it would be around #70 if the chart DID extend that far. I have no numbers on streaming, but presumably a roughly equivalent portion of its chart points come from each of the three metrics, with perhaps a slight edge to sales (Billboard constantly tweaks the metrics and rarely publicizes its formula), and “Ghost Town’s three metrics seem to be fairly standard (until the sales spike). So, it is therefore not unreasonable to presume that a position around #70 on each metric yields a #71 on the chart overall.

A 40-slot leap on one chart might lead to a 13-slot leap on the big board. Additionally, consider that the song would likely have increased 3-5 slots this week anyways, based on its past trajectory (before sales spiked). I am going to conservatively assume 3 slots, since the sales increase prong of the natural gain has already been accounted for. That gets you to #55.

However, in my experience, the #10 song on the Hot 100 is not usually at #10 on each of the component charts. Frequently, it will be at #9 on one chart, #12 on another, and #40 on the third. A song that is #1 on all three charts isn’t just #1 on overall, it is #1 for multiple weeks running. Sometimes, the #1 song isn’t #1 on ANY of the component charts. While #70 on all three charts might lead to #70 overall, the higher on the Hot 100 you go, the less that rule seems to hold. The higher on the Hot 100 you go, the weaker is the position required on each component chart if they are all equal to get that overall position. So, I would give Adam Lambert a few extra slots due to the operation of that principle.

Conclusion

I don’t think Adam can top #50 this week (or next). But, I do think he can get close. And, in so doing, he can build support for his song, and thereby build awareness and publicity. “Ghost Town” is slowly but surely turning into a legitimate hit, and I foresee it sticking around on pop radio through the fall.

American Jews on Iran deal

The American Jewish community is actually more in favor of the Iran deal than is the average American, Mr. Netanyahu’s disparaging comments about “one of the darkest days in human history” aside.

Per the Washington Post:

“In a poll of American Jews sponsored by the Los Angeles Jewish Journal and released on July 23, 49 percent backed the deal while 31 percent opposed it, compared to 28 percent and 24 percent of all Americans in polled in that survey (the rest were not sure). Fifty-three percent of American Jews wanted Congress to approve the deal, versus 35 percent who wanted Congress to reject it. In the general population, according to that poll, those numbers were 41 percent approve, 38 percent disapprove.”

It will be interesting to see what Jewish Members of Congress do with this grab-bag when it comes time to vote.

The wealthy who oppose redistribution of wealth overestimate the wealth that already exists

The Washington Post just published an interesting article. Here is the gist of it: wealthy people are more and more commonly self-sorted into homogeneous communities, where they shop at different grocery stores, use different transportation, and attend different schools than the poor. As a result, their subconscious understanding of the wealth of Americans is altered, and they are more and more likely to overestimate the wealth of Americans, and to underestimate poverty. Since they underestimate the need for redistribution, they are less likely to support it, selfishness aside.

The Real Economy of Florida under Jeb Bush

It turns out that most of the economic success Jeb Bush likes to tout that Florida had when he was Governor was actually due to the housing bubble (which subsequently popped and spurred the Great Depression).

“The Original High” should be Adam Lambert’s next single

Check out “The Original High” HERE.

I hope Adam and his label don’t assume that this song has less hit potential than “Underground” or “Another Lonely Night” just because of the youtube view count differential. The songs were released sequentially, with later released songs quickly falling into the same daily view count as the prior releases. “Underground,” for example, was released during the initial buzz surrounding “Ghost Town,” so, as new music from Adam, it received essentially the same initial view-count as “Ghost Town.” Later album cuts received less individual buzz and have had less time to accumulate views. Further, casual listeners of “Ghost Town” might want to see what else Adam’s album has to offer, and they are predisposed to click on the video with the most views, so the initial bias translates into a feedback loop.

I personally see this song as a highlight of the album and a potentially huge hit at pop radio. “Underground” is too dark to be the next single. It shouldn’t follow “Ghost Town.” “Underground” sounds like a followup to “Ghost Town,” and followups almost never do better than the original. “The Original High” doesn’t sound like “Ghost Town: Part 2;” it sounds like an original single with clear progression and a unique theme. Adam needs a new single that showcases his album (as the title track does) and shines the spotlight on both his artistic versatility and his ability to create a killer unique original pop hit that contributes substantively to the musical landscape.

For the above-mentioned reasons, I think “The Original High” is the best choice for Adam Lambert’s next single. What do you think? Sound off in the comments below.

Numbers Watch: What’s up with Adam Lambert’s “Ghost Town” sales?

A casual fan who wants to closely track the performance of a favored artist’s work, and thereby make accurate predictions about future chart success can make use of two primary free tools: allaccess.com, and kworb.net. Allaccess.com reports numbers directly from mediabase on daily radio audience impressions and spins by format and by specific radio station. Kworb.net is an extraordinary website that somehow imports data directly from the itunes of every country, and compiles it to provide various charts. It also conveniently compiles radio data from allaccess.com.

I track the information of many songs occasionally, and a few songs frequently. One of the songs I have been paying the most attention to lately is Adam Lambert’s “Ghost Town.” Up until now, the numbers have told me very little, as they have remained fairly consistent since the song’s release, with the occasion of a bump coinciding with the promotion and release of the album. Radio impressions slowly but surely rose every week, and sales followed suit. Streams on youtube showed a largely similar story.

But, yesterday, I noticed that “Ghost Town’s” US itunes sales were rising rapidly. Lambert had been hovering in the 90s, or 100s, with perhaps 8-9% of the sales of the #1 single. Suddenly, it was in the 50s, with 14-15% of the sales of the #1 single. Naturally, I googled “Adam Lambert” to see what awards show performance or scandal I had missed. Nothing.

It kept rising through the night and all day today, and now sits at #43 with 18.75% of the sales of the #1 single.

To be fair, this is a rising single, and, as I pointed out on the 18th, it has been getting strong audience ratings at pop, with almost no-one sick of hearing it yet. True to form, pop radio airplay has in fact picked up some steam, with Saturday’s gains standing as his largest in recent memory. At 3080 spins in the past 7 days, Lambert now boasts a 430-spin increase over the prior week, a strong 16.2% gain. But, the increase in radio airplay does not account for more than a small chunk of the increase in sales. Something else must be driving it.

What is going on?

It could be a glitch. Itunes isn’t exactly infallible, and neither is a non-transparent private website. But, the sales rose gradually over time. It was a rapid assent, to be sure, but it looks organic, like an actual sales bump caused by some event. There must be something I missed.

I looked at Lambert’s twitter feed for clues. It turns out Adam Lambert and Demi Lovato will be performing on the Australian Voice this upcoming Sunday. That was tweeted out this morning. It could be responsible for some of the bump (perhaps some of the continuing bump from today), but the original bump started yesterday. “Ghost Town” also went platinum in the Netherlands yesterday. Again, that just doesn’t seem big enough to drive sales to double day-over-day. Numerically, the tweet got about 50% more retweets than the average Lambert tweet.

Billboard now charts song titles’ twitter performance in real time. “Ghost Town” is at #18 on the trending 140 (which is based on acceleration over the past hour), and #38 on average over the past 24 hours. So, there is definitely some strong twitter trending going on (“Ghost Town” only charted at #46 on the most recent weekly twitter tracks chart). But, in the time that I have been writing this paragraph, it has actually dropped from #18 to #68, then rose to #36, then dropped to #40 again on the Trending 140. So, I don’t know how much use the information is.

 

Conclusion

Something weird has happened, and I’m not sure I can adequately explain it. But, whatever it is, it is a good sign for Adam. Just one last time before I sleep, I’m going to check Kworb. Adam’s sales have ticked up another notch to 18.95%.

 

Update 7/27/2015 9:49AM – “Ghost Town” kept growing through the night to 19.96%. It now sits at #41. Radio airplay increased moderately yesterday, and twitter trending faded. I just don’t get it.

Update 7/27/2015 5:30PM – #41 and 20.54%

Urge Your Representative TODAY to vote NO on H.R. 3009, AKA the “Trump Bill.”

I urge everyone to copy and paste the following letter into a message to their US congressperson TODAY. You can find your congressperson here. 

One family was burglarized two days before Christmas, but when they reported it to the police, they were more interested in checking the immigration status of every family member than in investigating the crime. They eventually discovered that the grandmother was undocumented (everyone else was legal), and she was deported.

Within weeks EVERY single house in the entire neighborhood was burglarized because EVERYONE was afraid to go to the police!

THAT, not some kind of liberal hippy infatuation with immigrants, is why we have sanctuary cities. When people don’t report crimes, more crimes happen to EVERYONE, because more criminals are on the loose.

H.R. 3009 is blatantly unconstitutional (as is the preexisting immigration law it enforces) because the federal government is NOT allowed to coopt state and local officials into its workforce, and it is not allowed to coerce them into doing its bidding. It is unconstitutional for precisely the same reason that the federal government could not force state governments to expand Medicaid under Obamacare.

Further, H.R. 3009 would take away funding from precisely those programs most likely to help reduce crime, inner city gang violence, and such evils. It would thus be ridiculously counterproductive.

It is a reactionary policy that is based on the same assumptions about immigrants that Donald Trump has made when he said that Mexico sends over its rapists and criminals. First, Mexico doesn’t SEND anybody. At most, it allows them to leave. Second, petty criminals are usually stupid, mentally disabled, lazy, and NOT ambitious. That is WHY they are criminals. Because they fail at life. Immigrants, especially illegal immigrants, need to be somewhat ambitious, intelligent, and motivated to try to cross the border and make a new life for their family in a land where they are not wanted. There will always be a few bad apples; some people driven by the financial incentives of drug- or human-trafficking. But, statistics consistently show that the criminality rate (and incarceration rate) among immigrant populations is actually way lower than among natives in the USA.

Donald Trump-style reactionary immigration laws that seem like a good idea on the surface should NOT be passed without first looking at the actual underlying numbers and seeing if they actually make sense.

When someone’s kid is sexually molested, I want the pervert to be reported IMMEDIATELY, no matter WHO the victim is. I don’t want MY kid molested because someone else was afraid that they would be deported if they reported!

This law does NOT make sense for the USA. This country needs MORE, not LESS sanctuary cities. Therefore, I urge you to vote against this bill, to campaign against it, and to do whatever you can to make sure it does NOT become law.

Thank you for your time and consideration