Adam Lambert has finally reached the Top 20 on Billboard’s Pop Songs airplay chart in its 18th tracking week. For full details on the milestone this represents, and how it was achieved, see the full post on Music Industry Sandbox:
Adam Lambert finally reaches Top 20 on pop radio spins per mediabase
Lady Gaga just released a new music video. To see how it’s doing after its first 18 hours of release, take a peak at the numbers I just crunched over on Music Industry Sandbox.
First there were murmurings from South Africa. Then, the song started heating up Polish iTunes and radio as youtube views started taking off. Now, finally, Adam Lambert’s new single is hitting British radio. Here is a tweet from a radio station in Wales:
@redroadmornings We are back! with your requests, a brand new big tune of the week from @adamlambert, a new album of the week from @EllaEyre and a lot more!
This, while “Ghost Town” is still one of the 25 most shazammed songs in the world, and the #36 most shazammed song in the USA.
Adam will likely wait for “Ghost Town” to peak before releasing “Another Lonely Night” in the USA, but it is a clear choice for the next single, and its selection in several other countries (including, apparently, the U.K. now) strongly implies that it will be the next single off the album back here in the USA as well.
“Another Lonely Night” has already overtaken “Ghost Town” on the South African and Polish shazam charts, giving Adam Lambert simultaneously two of the 25 most shazammed songs in Poland. In the USA, “Ghost Town” rises #24-#23 on pop radio airplay (by audience impressions) today, and looks like it will rise to a new peak of #22 tomorrow.
In the early part of the summer of 2014, “Problem,” by Ariana Grande feat. Iggy Azalea sat in the #2 slot behind “Fancy” (Iggy Azalea feat. Charli XCX) for five weeks, and ultimately was declared the runner up Song of the Summer. When Fancy managed to hold onto the #1 slot for two additional weeks after “Problem” fell out of the top two, I was forced to concede that “Fancy” was definitively the stronger hit. But, if you look at the youtube view counts of the two music videos today, you will notice that “Problem” has recently overtaken “Fancy,” and that its lead is rapidly growing (to the tune of 300,000 views/day).
So, is “Fancy” really the bigger hit, in hindsight?
To answer this question, we are going to need to look at what has driven the view disparity. But first:
“Fancy” was released in early March, and it steadily built radio airplay, sales, and streaming until it neared the apex of the Hot 100. Just as it was about to claim the throne on the strength of a substantial 222,000 sales, Ariana Grande released her new single, “Problem,” and garnered an astonishing 438,000 sales in the span of a single week, the most since Katy Perry’s “Roar” had debuted at #1 a year earlier. As “Fancy” narrowly fended off “Problem” for the crown of the Hot 100, “Problem” ‘s star-powered start at youtube quickly eclipsed “Fancy” ‘s budding view-count.
But all was not lost. “Fancy” had clawed its way to the apex of the Hot 100, and on the strength of established radio airplay, it clawed its way ahead of “Problem” on youtube, and slowly regained its air of superiority.
For five weeks, “Fancy” held the top spot on the Hot 100 over “Problem,” despite rapidly increasing radio airplay for the latter and continued strong sales. But then “Problem” ‘s sales finally began to falter as its airplay peaked, and it succumbed to ascendant hit “Rude” by Magic!. After holding the top slot for two more weeks, “Fancy” was able to claim the prized title of “Song of Summer 2014,” over respective runner-ups “Problem,” and “Rude.”
Iggy Azalea later released a fitting song called “Iggy SZN” (pronounced Iggy season). It really was Iggy season. She had taken her first two Hot 100 hits to #s 1 and 2 concurrently for numerous weeks. Then, she starred in a followup single, “Black Widow” feat. Rita Ora, that peaked at #3. Her “Fancy” co-collaborator, Charli XCX, meanwhile, released another top ten hit, “Boom Clap,” while Ariana Grande enjoyed the spotlight of several more hits. Iggy was hot. Until she was not.
Iggy had several singles flop. She had numerous social media beefs and flare-ups that garnered negative media attention. She was accused of being racist, or at least racially insensitive, partly due to her assimilation of a “blaccent” for her hit song “Fancy.” She canceled her tour because she “wanted it to be perfect.” But some people insinuated that it was due to low ticket sales. Then, her intended recovery hit single with Britney Spears, “Pretty Girls” flopped. To top off injury with insult, her prized single, “Fancy,” which had once accumulated about a 40 million view lead over “Problem,” was finally surpassed in views by the runner-up song of the summer of 2014.
Of course, Iggy gets the consolation prize of having been a featured artist on “Problem,” but really, it was an Ariana song. So, maybe the negativity surrounding Iggy helped depress her view count a bit, mostly, I think that is just by preventing her future singles from becoming smashes that could drive continued traffic back to “Fancy.”
If you have a music video on your page that generates 1 or 2 million views/day, then it should come as no surprise that the other videos on your page might see a small boost because of it (say, 100,000/d). In a collapsing major hit like “Problem” or “Fancy,” you might not notice the bump much, as it might simply keep the song afloat at current view levels longer.
Iggy and Charli each had a second top ten hit on the Billboard Hot 100 last summer, with “Black Widow,” and “Boom Clap.” But, since then, they haven’t really had anything majorly successful. Iggy teamed up with Britney Spears for a “Pretty Girls” video that got strong initial views, but after the song flopped at radio (with seriously terrible audience ratings), the youtube views collapsed. Still, it was generating over 1 million views for quite a while, and it likely helped “Fancy” ‘s view-count a bit.
Ariana Grande, on the other hand, has had a steady stream of hits. “Bang Bang” and “Break Free” peaked in the top 5, “Love Me Harder” peaked at #7, and “One Last Time” peaked at #13 as recently as early May. She also released a Christmas song, “Santa Tell Me” that was getting about 1 million views/day before the season ended.
Finally, you have to keep in mind that everything Iggy Azalea has done has benefited the “Problem” music video (on which she was featured) as well as the “Fancy” video, whereas Ariana’s star power has been focused on “Problem” ‘s success.
So, the driver of “Problem” ‘s youtube view-count success is more “Ariana Grande post-hoc star power” and less “strength of ‘Problem’ as an actual hit.”
My verdict: “Fancy” is still the bigger hit.
“Fancy” pulled two largely unknown artists from oblivion to international stardom through its shear awesomeness. “Problem” was a huge it, and deservedly so. It capitalized on Ariana’s pre-existing popularity perfectly, and started a sequence of hit singles for her. It is easily her biggest hit to date. But, ultimately, it sat behind “Fancy” on the Hot 100 for five weeks in a row before collapsing. It has managed to pull into the lead on total youtube views, but that is due primarily to post-hoc star power, not due to the strength of the single itself. And, Iggy’s star power has been split between the two competing singles, so it was never really a fair race to begin with.
In hindsight, “Fancy,” by Iggy Azalea feat. Charli XCX remains the Song of Summer 2014!
We can now compare Republican candidate’s performance in the four most recent pre-debate polls with their performance in Rasmussen’s first post-debate poll and thereby see who the big winners — and losers — really were.
Quick note: Rasmussen has occasionally been implicitly or explicitly accused of being an untrustworthy pollster with right-leaning political motivations by, stats guru Nate Silver, electoral-vote.com, and by me.
1) Carly Fiorina
Pre-debate polling average: 1.25%
Post-debate: 9%
Gain: 7.75%
2) Rubio
Pre-debate polling average: 5.25%
Post-debate: 10%
Gain: 4.75%
3) Carson
Pre-debate polling average: 5.75%
Post-debate: 8%
Gain: 2.25%
Cruz
Pre-debate polling average: 5.5%
Post-debate: 7%
Gain: 1.5%
Kasich
Pre-debate polling average: 2.75%
Post-debate: 4%
Gain: 1.25%
1) Trump
Pre-debate polling average: 24.25%
Post-debate: 17%
Gain: -7.25%
2) Huckabee
Pre-debate polling average: 6.75%
Post-debate: 3%
Gain: -3.75%
3) Bush
Pre-debate polling average: 12.5%
Post-debate: 10%
Gain: -2.5%
Walker
Pre-debate polling average: 9.5%
Post-debate: 9%
Gain: -0.5%
Paul
Pre-debate polling average: 4.5%
Post-debate: 4%
Gain: -0.5%
Christie
Pre-debate polling average: 3.5%
Post-debate: 4%
Gain: 0.5%
Perry
Pre-debate polling average: 1.75%
Post-debate: 1%
Gain: 0.75%
Santorum
Pre-debate polling average: 1.5%
Post-debate: 1%
Gain: -0.5%
Jindal
Pre-debate polling average: 1.25%
Post-debate: 1%
Gain: -0.25%
Graham
Pre-debate polling average: 0.5%
Post-debate: 1%
Gain: 0.5%
Keep in mind that Trump still came in with a 7% polling lead. Fox News may be kindof affiliated with Rasmussen. Both may be kindof extensions of the Republican party, or at least the establishment wing of the Republican party. Both may be biased towards getting a Republican president elected. Both may realize that Trump wouldn’t have a shot in hell against Hillary, and both may therefore have an interest in portraying Trump as a loser and in biasing polling data and presidential debates to turn Republican primary voters away from him.
Early in the debate, Fox displayed the number of golf courses Trump owns on the screen briefly while he was answering one of the many tough questions the moderators threw at him. They asked tough questions of every candidate, but none more so than of Trump. To be fair, Trump has said a LOT of things that would ordinarily be expected to end a campaign. Additionally, Fox was likely able to boost its ratings by focusing on the many crazy things Trump has said or done in the past.
In the end, take everything with a grain of salt.
In the end, the big winner is Carly Fiorina, who went from almost 0% of the vote to being tied with the likes of Bush, Walker, and Rubio, for second place behind Trump. Fiorina is now likely to be considered a serious candidate for the nomination. It remains to be seen how her debate bump in popularity will continue through the coming weeks, but one thing is for sure: she is no longer a candidate to ignore. Rubio has also risen back to the top tier of candidates following his brief hiatus. Trump’s bubble may finally have popped, and he could now be facing the same fate as other bubble candidates before him, like Michelle Bachman and Herman Cain. I am particularly inclined to think Trump’s bubble has been popped because he is facing legitimate fallout over his Megyn Kelly feud and over the fact that he essentially used to be a democrat (primary voters who previously supported him may not have been fully aware of the extent of his democratic allegiance before Fox News so carefully pointed it out during the debate).
Other than that, though, the overall race remains virtually unchanged, with Bush remaining the best bet.
Following his performance on the Australian version of The Voice, Adam Lambert’s new single shot to the top of the Australian iTunes chart, where it is still standing strong. As a result, “Ghost Town” leapt from #16 to #2 on Australia’s premier singles chart, ARIA, for the tracking week ending Friday, August 7th. One Direction’s new single, “Drag Me Down The Original High, meanwhile, returns to #6, near its #4 debut/peak.
“Ghost Town” has spent 11 weeks on Australia’s singles chart. It has also peaked in the top ten in South Africa, the Netherlands, and Poland. It is currently charting on iTunes in 37 countries. For the week ending July 31st, “Ghost Town” ranks at its peak-to-date of #67 on the US Billboard Hot 100 while The Original High ranks at #98 on the Billboard 200. Lambert ranks at #88 on Billboard’s (US) Artist 100.
Lambert’s prior singles, “Whataya Want from Me,” and “If I Had You” are also tracking in the iTunes of Australia and New Zealand. Lambert is slated for performances in both countries when he goes on tour starting in early 2016.
With it’s first single since the loss of Zayn Malik shocked One Directioners the world over, the band is facing a test of the continued devotion of its fan base. The verdict? More enthusiasm than ever.
“Drag Me Down” is currently headed for the highest debut of the year on the Billboard Hot 100 with perhaps 340,000 downloads.
Billboard says it will likely debut in the Top 5. But, could it debut at #1? Let’s look at the numbers.
Per Billboard, we have an insider estimate of at least 5 million US streams and perhaps 340,000 sales. Radio airplay in its first three days of availability totaled 10 million audience impressions. I estimate that billboard figures will show about 21 million +/- 2 million audience impressions for the radio tracking week ending Sunday, the 9th. You can create your own estimate from publicly available information for free here, here, and here.
Omi’s “Cheerleader,” which has been #1 for four weeks.
Last week’s performance –
Sales: 148,000; down 9%
Airplay: 140 million; up 5%
Streams: 16.1 million; up 17%
This week’s estimated performance –
Sales: 128,000; down 13%
Airplay: 145.85 million; up 4.18%
Streams: 16 million
The Weeknd’s “Can’t Feel My Face” which has been #2 for three weeks.
Last week’s performance –
Sales: 148,000; up 21%
Airplay: 144 million; up 5%
Streams: 13.1 million; up 21%
This week’s estimated performance –
Sales: 150,000; up 1%
Airplay: 151 million; up 4.9%
Streams: 14 million
Billboard doesn’t publish its actual formula as a matter of course, but it does allude to it frequently enough that we can generate a reasonable estimate. We know, specifically, that 13.7 million streams is approximately equal to but greater than 172,000 sales is approximately equal to but greater than 122 million radio audience impressions. So, let’s assume that 13 million streams actually equals 175,000 sales actually equals 140 million audience impressions. That implies that 1 million streams equals 13,462 sales equals 10.77 million radio audience impressions equals 1 chart point.
The Weeknd: 14 + 14.02 + 11.14 = 39.16 chart points
Omi: 16 + 13.54 + 9.51 = 39.05 chart points
One Direction: 5 + 1.95 + 25.26 = 32.21 chart points
The Weeknd – One Direction: 6.95 chart points, or 21.58% of One Direction’s expected points.
One Direction is probably not going to debut at #1 on next week’s Hot 100. Assuming they got an almost fantastical 31.77 million radio audience impressions and 7 million US streams, they would still need about 392,000 sales to take the lead, unless the other two contenders were to do markedly worse than expected, or unless my estimate of Billboard’s formula is way off the mark. Instead, it looks like The Weeknd’s “Can’t Feel My Face” will eek into first place on the strength of a headlining spot at Lollapalooza 2015 and a music video debut.
One Direction should debut inside the Top 5 of the Hot 100, but almost certainly not higher than #3.
According to a recent instagram tease, Lady Gaga’s fifth (sixth if you count the Fame Monster separately) studio album is on its way. Now that she is done touring with Tony Bennett, she can devote her attention full-time to recording her next album–that is, aside from filming the sixth season of American Horror Story.
Under a simple selfie, Gaga posted, “LG5 time.”
I will of course, have further updates on the prospects of Gaga’s first pop studio album since Artpop, as I read the tea leaves in the coming months.
Adam Lambert’s newest album, The Original High and his newest single, “Ghost Town,” have taken over the land down under after a “buzzworthy” performance (per Billboard) on the Australian version of The Voice Sunday night. Sales of “Ghost Town” even picked up a notch in the states, pulling Lambert’s sales from #78 to #74 on US iTunes.
Adam Lambert is known as the first openly gay male artist to debut atop the Billboard 200 with an album, and one of the few contestants from American Idol that have managed to maintain a presence in the music industry. He has also become the de facto frontman of Queen in recent years (and Brian May is featured on one of Lambert’s new songs) as they have toured extensively together.
While “Ghost Town” has been a slow-building minor hit in the US (it still hasn’t cracked the top half of the Billboard Hot 100, although it is set to make a play for it this week; more below), it has enjoyed more success overseas. Last week, “Ghost Town” sat high on Aria (Australia’s primary singles chart) at #16.
Prior hits “Whataya Want from Me” and “If I Had You” have reentered the Australian iTunes chart and currently sit at #77 and #86.
During the most recent chart week, Adam Lambert’s new single, “Ghost Town,” was featured prominently on iTunes’ “Hot Tracks” section of its home page. This resulted in a massive 71% week-over-week sales spike for the song, from 15k/week to 26k/week. It had been hovering around #80; it jumped to the low #40s, and stayed there through the week. It is still featured on the list, but it is now in the second-to-last position, and sales have slid back to the mid #70s.
Prior to this week, the song had been rising on the Hot 100 at a rate of 3-6 slots/week, on the strength of modest but balanced and consistent airplay, sales, and streaming gains. It currently sits at #71. As I previously reported, “Ghost Town” may therefore rise 15-20 slots on the Hot 100 this week. There is a substantial degree of error in that calculation, since Billboard is somewhat tight-lipped about the ranking formula it actually uses. Still, I would be surprised if it rose less than 10 slots or more than 25 slots on the Hot 100.
Suppose for the sake of argument that Lambert scores a 21-slot jump to #50 this week. What next? Sales have already deflated to the level they were at when he was ranked #71. Streams, at least global streams on youtube, have not been accelerating, although they have been increasing modestly over time. Daily radio airplay appears to have stalled over the past several days, although that may be a temporary fluctuation in a relatively volatile data set.
Assume that the song returns to the underlying trend of gaining 3-6 slots/week after the artificial sales spike. It might drop from #50 to #63. Then, it would pick up to #60, then #57, #53. The song would have to maintain momentum for another month or more in order to make a new peak, provided that it doesn’t start accelerating. If the song is peaking now on radio and streaming, then it won’t last that long.
I am not saying that the song is definitely peaking this week. It has had shaky airplay growth in the past that in the bigger picture, in hindsight, looks more like slow and stable growth. Additionally, the song has polled well among radio listeners who have heard it (a substantial number still had not), and that indicates potential future radio success.
All I am saying is to not be surprised if this week does end up being the end of the story. The single had a slow start, and it never really accelerated. If it hasn’t accelerated by now, then there is no reason to think that it is going to accelerate in the future. It isn’t impossible. It could be simply that “Ghost Town” was released in the wrong season (summer), and it will pick up once leaves start to fall. Or, it could fall right alongside them.
Either way, we are about to learn a valuable lesson about how songs move when they are ranked #71 and their sales spike 71%. And, next week, we are going to learn just how popular Adam Lambert is in Australia.
Update: Lambert did indeed peak on the Hot 100, but only at #67. I suspect that I weighted sales too heavily as a percentage of Lambert’s chart points. He then dropped back to #72, albeit with stable gains at radio. It remains to be seen how long the song will continue to post gains at radio, and thereby continue to climb the charts. #67 could still conceivably represent Lambert’s peak.
The winds point towards a new #1 song atop the Billboard Hot 100 next week. Two weeks ago, it looked like there might be a battle this week as #2 “Can’t Feel My Face” per The Weeknd closed in on Omi’s tropical hit, “Cheerleader.” But, The Weekend’s inexplicable sharp and sudden sales withdrawal actually managed to widen the points gap from 9% to 15%.
But now, with the release of the track’s hot new music video, sales have skyrocketed for The Weeknd (in addition to the expected streaming gain). It is difficult to gage the number of streams the song will end up with this week, but considering that the audio version of the song alone is already generating over a million daily plays on youtube (globally), and considering the massive sales spike (the song is currently selling over 50% more copies per minute than “Cheerleader”), I think it is safe to say that The Weeknd will sit on the throne next week, with the edge in all three chart metrics.
Sometimes Profound 