New Music From Lady Gaga; Early Stats

Lady Gaga just released a new music video. To see how it’s doing after its first 18 hours of release, take a peak at the numbers I just crunched over on Music Industry Sandbox.

Winners and Losers from the First Republican Presidential Debate

We can now compare Republican candidate’s performance in the four most recent pre-debate polls with their performance in Rasmussen’s first post-debate poll and thereby see who the big winners — and losers — really were.

Quick note: Rasmussen has occasionally been implicitly or explicitly accused of being an untrustworthy pollster with right-leaning political motivations by, stats guru Nate Silver, electoral-vote.com, and by me.

Winners

1) Carly Fiorina

Pre-debate polling average: 1.25%

Post-debate: 9%

Gain: 7.75%

2) Rubio

Pre-debate polling average: 5.25%

Post-debate: 10%

Gain: 4.75%

3) Carson

Pre-debate polling average: 5.75%

Post-debate: 8%

Gain: 2.25%

Cruz

Pre-debate polling average: 5.5%

Post-debate: 7%

Gain: 1.5%

Kasich

Pre-debate polling average: 2.75%

Post-debate: 4%

Gain: 1.25%

Losers

1) Trump

Pre-debate polling average: 24.25%

Post-debate: 17%

Gain: -7.25%

2) Huckabee

Pre-debate polling average: 6.75%

Post-debate: 3%

Gain: -3.75%

3) Bush

Pre-debate polling average: 12.5%

Post-debate: 10%

Gain: -2.5%

Everyone Else

Walker

Pre-debate polling average: 9.5%

Post-debate: 9%

Gain: -0.5%

Paul

Pre-debate polling average: 4.5%

Post-debate: 4%

Gain: -0.5%

Christie

Pre-debate polling average: 3.5%

Post-debate: 4%

Gain: 0.5%

Perry

Pre-debate polling average: 1.75%

Post-debate: 1%

Gain: 0.75%

Santorum

Pre-debate polling average: 1.5%

Post-debate: 1%

Gain: -0.5%

Jindal

Pre-debate polling average: 1.25%

Post-debate: 1%

Gain: -0.25%

Graham

Pre-debate polling average: 0.5%

Post-debate: 1%

Gain: 0.5%

Keep in mind that Trump still came in with a 7% polling lead. Fox News may be kindof affiliated with Rasmussen. Both may be kindof extensions of the Republican party, or at least the establishment wing of the Republican party. Both may be biased towards getting a Republican president elected. Both may realize that Trump wouldn’t have a shot in hell against Hillary, and both may therefore have an interest in portraying Trump as a loser and in biasing polling data and presidential debates to turn Republican primary voters away from him.

Early in the debate, Fox displayed the number of golf courses Trump owns on the screen briefly while he was answering one of the many tough questions the moderators threw at him. They asked tough questions of every candidate, but none more so than of Trump. To be fair, Trump has said a LOT of things that would ordinarily be expected to end a campaign. Additionally, Fox was likely able to boost its ratings by focusing on the many crazy things Trump has said or done in the past.

In the end, take everything with a grain of salt.

Conclusion

In the end, the big winner is Carly Fiorina, who went from almost 0% of the vote to being tied with the likes of Bush, Walker, and Rubio, for second place behind Trump. Fiorina is now likely to be considered a serious candidate for the nomination. It remains to be seen how her debate bump in popularity will continue through the coming weeks, but one thing is for sure: she is no longer a candidate to ignore. Rubio has also risen back to the top tier of candidates following his brief hiatus. Trump’s bubble may finally have popped, and he could now be facing the same fate as other bubble candidates before him, like Michelle Bachman and Herman Cain. I am particularly inclined to think Trump’s bubble has been popped because he is facing legitimate fallout over his Megyn Kelly feud and over the fact that he essentially used to be a democrat (primary voters who previously supported him may not have been fully aware of the extent of his democratic allegiance before Fox News so carefully pointed it out during the debate).

Other than that, though, the overall race remains virtually unchanged, with Bush remaining the best bet.

“Ghost Town” rises #16 to #2 in the Land Down Under

Following his performance on the Australian version of The Voice, Adam Lambert’s new single shot to the top of the Australian iTunes chart, where it is still standing strong. As a result, “Ghost Town” leapt from #16 to #2 on Australia’s premier singles chart, ARIA, for the tracking week ending Friday, August 7th. One Direction’s new single, “Drag Me Down The Original High, meanwhile, returns to #6, near its #4 debut/peak.

“Ghost Town” has spent 11 weeks on Australia’s singles chart. It has also peaked in the top ten in South Africa, the Netherlands, and Poland. It is currently charting on iTunes in 37 countries. For the week ending July 31st, “Ghost Town” ranks at its peak-to-date of #67 on the US Billboard Hot 100 while The Original High ranks at #98 on the Billboard 200. Lambert ranks at #88 on Billboard’s (US) Artist 100.

Lambert’s prior singles, “Whataya Want from Me,” and “If I Had You” are also tracking in the iTunes of Australia and New Zealand. Lambert is slated for performances in both countries when he goes on tour starting in early 2016.

Can One Direction Steal a #1 Debut on the Hot 100?

With it’s first single since the loss of Zayn Malik shocked One Directioners the world over, the band is facing a test of the continued devotion of its fan base. The verdict? More enthusiasm than ever.

“Drag Me Down” is currently headed for the highest debut of the year on the Billboard Hot 100 with perhaps 340,000 downloads.

So, how high will 1D debut?

Billboard says it will likely debut in the Top 5. But, could it debut at #1? Let’s look at the numbers.

Per Billboard, we have an insider estimate of at least 5 million US streams and perhaps 340,000 sales. Radio airplay in its first three days of availability totaled 10 million audience impressions. I estimate that billboard figures will show about 21 million +/- 2 million audience impressions for the radio tracking week ending Sunday, the 9th. You can create your own estimate from publicly available information for free here, here, and here.

Other possible contender’s for the #1 slot:

Omi’s “Cheerleader,” which has been #1 for four weeks.

Last week’s performance – 

Sales: 148,000; down 9%

Airplay: 140 million; up 5%

Streams: 16.1 million; up 17%

This week’s estimated performance – 

Sales: 128,000; down 13%

Airplay: 145.85 million; up 4.18%

Streams: 16 million

The Weeknd’s “Can’t Feel My Face” which has been #2 for three weeks. 

Last week’s performance – 

Sales: 148,000; up 21%

Airplay: 144 million; up 5%

Streams: 13.1 million; up 21%

This week’s estimated performance – 

Sales: 150,000; up 1%

Airplay: 151 million; up 4.9%

Streams: 14 million

The Formula

Billboard doesn’t publish its actual formula as a matter of course, but it does allude to it frequently enough that we can generate a reasonable estimate. We know, specifically, that 13.7 million streams is approximately equal to but greater than 172,000 sales is approximately equal to but greater than 122 million radio audience impressions. So, let’s assume that 13 million streams actually equals 175,000 sales actually equals 140 million audience impressions. That implies that 1 million streams equals 13,462 sales equals 10.77 million radio audience impressions equals 1 chart point.

The Weeknd: 14 + 14.02 + 11.14 = 39.16 chart points

Omi: 16 + 13.54 + 9.51 = 39.05 chart points

One Direction: 5 + 1.95 + 25.26 = 32.21 chart points

The Weeknd – One Direction: 6.95 chart points, or 21.58% of One Direction’s expected points.

Conclusion

One Direction is probably not going to debut at #1 on next week’s Hot 100. Assuming they got an almost fantastical 31.77 million radio audience impressions and 7 million US streams, they would still need about 392,000 sales to take the lead, unless the other two contenders were to do markedly worse than expected, or unless my estimate of Billboard’s formula is way off the mark. Instead, it looks like The Weeknd’s “Can’t Feel My Face” will eek into first place on the strength of a headlining spot at Lollapalooza 2015 and a music video debut.

One Direction should debut inside the Top 5 of the Hot 100, but almost certainly not higher than #3.

Adam Lambert reaches #1 on Australian iTunes; set to peak on US Hot 100 this week

Adam Lambert reaches new highs with his new album, The Original High, in the land down under.

Adam Lambert’s newest album, The Original High and his newest single, “Ghost Town,” have taken over the land down under after a “buzzworthy” performance (per Billboard) on the Australian version of The Voice Sunday night. Sales of “Ghost Town” even picked up a notch in the states, pulling Lambert’s sales from #78 to #74 on US iTunes.

Adam Lambert is known as the first openly gay male artist to debut atop the Billboard 200 with an album, and one of the few contestants from American Idol that have managed to maintain a presence in the music industry. He has also become the de facto frontman of Queen in recent years (and Brian May is featured on one of Lambert’s new songs) as they have toured extensively together.

While “Ghost Town” has been a slow-building minor hit in the US (it still hasn’t cracked the top half of the Billboard Hot 100, although it is set to make a play for it this week; more below), it has enjoyed more success overseas. Last week, “Ghost Town” sat high on Aria (Australia’s primary singles chart) at #16.

Prior hits “Whataya Want from Me” and “If I Had You” have reentered the Australian iTunes chart and currently sit at #77 and #86.

“Ghost Town” may peak on the Hot 10o this week.

During the most recent chart week, Adam Lambert’s new single, “Ghost Town,” was featured prominently on iTunes’ “Hot Tracks” section of its home page. This resulted in a massive 71% week-over-week sales spike for the song, from 15k/week to 26k/week. It had been hovering around #80; it jumped to the low #40s, and stayed there through the week. It is still featured on the list, but it is now in the second-to-last position, and sales have slid back to the mid #70s.

Prior to this week, the song had been rising on the Hot 100 at a rate of 3-6 slots/week, on the strength of modest but balanced and consistent airplay, sales, and streaming gains. It currently sits at #71. As I previously reported, “Ghost Town” may therefore rise 15-20 slots on the Hot 100 this week. There is a substantial degree of error in that calculation, since Billboard is somewhat tight-lipped about the ranking formula it actually uses. Still, I would be surprised if it rose less than 10 slots or more than 25 slots on the Hot 100.

Suppose for the sake of argument that Lambert scores a 21-slot jump to #50 this week. What next? Sales have already deflated to the level they were at when he was ranked #71. Streams, at least global streams on youtube, have not been accelerating, although they have been increasing modestly over time. Daily radio airplay appears to have stalled over the past several days, although that may be a temporary fluctuation in a relatively volatile data set.

Assume that the song returns to the underlying trend of gaining 3-6 slots/week after the artificial sales spike. It might drop from #50 to #63. Then, it would pick up to #60, then #57, #53. The song would have to maintain momentum for another month or more in order to make a new peak, provided that it doesn’t start accelerating. If the song is peaking now on radio and streaming, then it won’t last that long.

I am not saying that the song is definitely peaking this week. It has had shaky airplay growth in the past that in the bigger picture, in hindsight, looks more like slow and stable growth. Additionally, the song has polled well among radio listeners who have heard it (a substantial number still had not), and that indicates potential future radio success.

All I am saying is to not be surprised if this week does end up being the end of the story. The single had a slow start, and it never really accelerated. If it hasn’t accelerated by now, then there is no reason to think that it is going to accelerate in the future. It isn’t impossible. It could be simply that “Ghost Town” was released in the wrong season (summer), and it will pick up once leaves start to fall. Or, it could fall right alongside them.

Either way, we are about to learn a valuable lesson about how songs move when they are ranked #71 and their sales spike 71%. And, next week, we are going to learn just how popular Adam Lambert is in Australia.

Update: Lambert did indeed peak on the Hot 100, but only at #67. I suspect that I weighted sales too heavily as a percentage of Lambert’s chart points. He then dropped back to #72, albeit with stable gains at radio. It remains to be seen how long the song will continue to post gains at radio, and thereby continue to climb the charts. #67 could still conceivably represent Lambert’s peak.

There is HOW much money in the 2016 campaign? Where? Who? What? Why?

“Never before has so much money been donated by such a small number of people so early.” – Washington Post

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama each raised about $1 billion total during the 2012 race, including Super Pacs, the RNC, and the DNC. In 2012, Mitt Romney’s Super Pacs raised a total of $225.4 million, while Barack Obama’s raised $91.5 million. 

The Money

Last Updated: 8/1/2015

Total 2016: $418.2 million

Super Pac Total: $288.4 million

Super Pac %: 68.96%

Republican Super Pacs Total: $272.5 million

Republican Super Pac Percent: 94.49%

Democratic Super Pacs Total: $15.9 million

Democratic Super Pac Percent: 5.51%

Campaign Total: $129.8 million

Campaign Percent: 31.04%

Republican Campaigns Total: $67 million

Republican Campaigns Percent: 51.62%

Democratic Campaigns Total: $62.8 million

Democratic Campaigns Percent: 48.38%

Number of donors who have shelled out more than $1 million dollars apiece: 58

Total amount contributed by million-dollar-plus donors: $120 million

Percentage of total contributed to super pacs by million-dollar-plus donors: 28.69%

Top 3 Donors

1) Robert Mercer, New York hedge-fund manager

Total donated: $11 m

Candidate: Ted Cruz (R)

2) Toby Neugebauer, Houston private equity investor

Total donated: $10 m

Candidate: Ted Cruz (R)

3) Kelcy Warren, Dallas energy executive; national finance chairman for Rick Perry’s campaign

Total donated: $6 m

Candidate: Rick Perry (R)

Top 10 Candidates

1) Jeb Bush (R) 

Total: $119.9 m

Super Pac: $108.5 m

Super Pac %: 90.49%

2) Hillary Clinton (D) 

Total: $62.7 m

Super Pac: $15.6 m

Super Pac %: 24.88%

3) Ted Cruz (R)

Total: $52.1 m

Super Pac: $37.8 m

Super Pac %: 72.55%

4) Marco Rubio (R) 

Total: $45.2 m

Super Pac: $33.1 m

Super Pac %: 73.23%

5) Scott Walker (R) 

Total: $26.2 m

Super Pac: $26.2 m

Super Pac %: 100%

6) Bernie Sanders (D) 

Total: $15.1 m

Super Pac: $0

Super Pac %: 0%

7) Chris Christie (R) 

Total: $14.4 m

Super Pac: $14.4 m

Super Pac %: 100%

8) Rick Perry (R) 

Total: $13.9 m

Super Pac: $12.8 m

Super Pac %: 92.09%

9) Rand Paul (R) 

Total: $13.1 m

Super Pac: $6.2 m

Super Pac %: 47.33%

10) John Kasich (R) 

Total: $11.5 m

Super Pac: $11.5 m

Super Pac %: 100%

Source

Omi will lose the battle for #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 next week

The winds point towards a new #1 song atop the Billboard Hot 100 next week. Two weeks ago, it looked like there might be a battle this week as #2 “Can’t Feel My Face” per The Weeknd closed in on Omi’s tropical hit, “Cheerleader.” But, The Weekend’s inexplicable sharp and sudden sales withdrawal actually managed to widen the points gap from 9% to 15%.

But now, with the release of the track’s hot new music video, sales have skyrocketed for The Weeknd (in addition to the expected streaming gain). It is difficult to gage the number of streams the song will end up with this week, but considering that the audio version of the song alone is already generating over a million daily plays on youtube (globally), and considering the massive sales spike (the song is currently selling over 50% more copies per minute than “Cheerleader”),  I think it is safe to say that The Weeknd will sit on the throne next week, with the edge in all three chart metrics. 

Adam Lambert’s “Ghost Town” is actually still near peak sales

As earlier reported, Adam Lambert’s “Ghost Town” dramatically increased its sales over the weekend, going from around #80 to #40 on iTunes, and from around 8.5% of the sales of the #1 song to over 20%. [I get these numbers from kworb.net, which is the private website of some super computer-geek that somehow pulls information on sales and radio airplay directly from iTunes and other websites (possibly by hacking), which is actually accurate. It is a convenient compilation of most of the numbers (with archives!) that I could ask for.]. I ultimately was alerted to the fact that Adam was being featured on iTunes’ list of Hot Tracks, and that combined with other forces (such as Adam getting himself scheduled to perform on The Voice Australia) made the sales boom eventually make sense. But then, yesterday, the 20% started dropping like a rock. He is now at 13.09% of sales of the #1 song. I assumed that the boom was over.

But I was wrong. 

The number one song switched yesterday from Omi’s “Cheerleader” to The Weeknd’s “Can’t Feel My Face.” Omi has apparently been sitting stagnant on sales, or perhaps declining slightly. But, Omi’s share of sales of the #1 song have actually been dropping like a rock, from 100% some time yesterday, to 62.89% currently. If we assume that Omi’s sales have actually remained fairly constant over the past day, then we can calculate the true drop off of Adam Lambert’s sales. Adam’s sales stood at almost exactly 20% at the moment the #1 song switched. So, by simply multiplying 20% by .6289, we can figure out what percentage Adam would have if he were actually holding steady. Adam Lambert SHOULD be at 12.578%. Since his true value is 13.09%, it actually looks like he has gained slightly over the past day. Since Omi’s song is actually probably on a slight downward trend, it would be a mistake to assume Adam’s sales are actually growing, however.

Perhaps the best indicator of his sales is his position on the chart. At #43, it is near his peak of #40, and it is around the same location that it has been at for the past several days. That, combined with the earlier calculation, indicates that Adam’s sales are roughly constant.

So what are Adam’s sales actually likely to be for the next billboard tracking week? 

25k – 30k. For comparison, his sales for the prior charting week were around 15k. How do I know? Kworb has a separate feature that estimates weekly sales for songs. It’s most recent estimate for the tracking week ending July 30th is 26k. But, I don’t know what formula it uses, and Adam Lambert’s numbers have been a little bit crazy lately (it could be drawing a trend line incorrectly assuming that sales will keep increasing, for example…). Omi’s sales should be easily estimated, however, considering that it is a slowly declining, well-established hit. It’s estimated sales are 154k. In the middle of the tracking week, Adam Lambert’s sales were about 20% of Omi’s sales, so that implied weekly sales of about 30.8K. However, Adam was only at #83 on the first day of the tracking week (just before the boom), so that drops off about half a day’s sales (2.2K), and I am still not convinced that the sales boom will not slow before the week ends. So, that is why my estimate is a conservative 25K-30K. But that is still an increase of 66% to 100% of sales over the prior week, which could translate into a serious leap on the Billboard Hot 100.

So, where should I expect to see “Ghost Town” on next week’s Hot 100?

Roughly, I would say perhaps around #50-#60. “Ghost Town” is currently at #71 on the Hot 100. It isn’t charting on Radio Songs, but Kworb conveniently compiles data to tell us that it would be around #70 if the chart DID extend that far. I have no numbers on streaming, but presumably a roughly equivalent portion of its chart points come from each of the three metrics, with perhaps a slight edge to sales (Billboard constantly tweaks the metrics and rarely publicizes its formula), and “Ghost Town’s three metrics seem to be fairly standard (until the sales spike). So, it is therefore not unreasonable to presume that a position around #70 on each metric yields a #71 on the chart overall.

A 40-slot leap on one chart might lead to a 13-slot leap on the big board. Additionally, consider that the song would likely have increased 3-5 slots this week anyways, based on its past trajectory (before sales spiked). I am going to conservatively assume 3 slots, since the sales increase prong of the natural gain has already been accounted for. That gets you to #55.

However, in my experience, the #10 song on the Hot 100 is not usually at #10 on each of the component charts. Frequently, it will be at #9 on one chart, #12 on another, and #40 on the third. A song that is #1 on all three charts isn’t just #1 on overall, it is #1 for multiple weeks running. Sometimes, the #1 song isn’t #1 on ANY of the component charts. While #70 on all three charts might lead to #70 overall, the higher on the Hot 100 you go, the less that rule seems to hold. The higher on the Hot 100 you go, the weaker is the position required on each component chart if they are all equal to get that overall position. So, I would give Adam Lambert a few extra slots due to the operation of that principle.

Conclusion

I don’t think Adam can top #50 this week (or next). But, I do think he can get close. And, in so doing, he can build support for his song, and thereby build awareness and publicity. “Ghost Town” is slowly but surely turning into a legitimate hit, and I foresee it sticking around on pop radio through the fall.