Tag Archives: obama

Why do some people hate Barack Obama? Is it because he’s black?

24 Feb
Why do people try to climb Mt. Everest? Because they can.
There are literally over 7 billion people on this planet. If you asked (even just the English-speakers) what the answer to 2+2 is, you would get probably get multiple percentage points worth of people not saying 4.
If you ever get a job calling people on the phone and asking them about their opinions (which I did for about a year in college), I can virtually guarantee that you will be shocked at the number of people who say things that are completely ridiculous, dumb, and/or based on obvious factual inaccuracies.
I worked for a summer in a congressional office, and I didn’t answer the phones (luckily), but there was this one guy who just kept calling and asking ridiculous questions about President Obama’s positions, and the weird thing is that we were pretty sure he actually believed what he was saying.
So, yeah, there are a shockingly large number of people that are just unimaginably dumb, or downright crazy. But, there are a few more answers to your question:
1) Yes, some people hate Obama because he is black. Probably something like 5% of the population would actually admit that they hate him because of his race. Another 5%-10% of the country is likely influenced by a more subtle, but still substantial racist element. Perhaps they feel threatened in general or they are afraid of what he represents. Perhaps they are afraid that their kids or grandkids might someday NOT be on top of the world, and their natural instinct is to try to make sure that “someone” from some other demographic stays down.
a) NOTE: People’s satisfaction with their lives is largely relative, not absolute.If you ask people whether they are happy with their standard of living, people in first world countries who have running water, televisions, computers, cars, and savings will say “no” because they are comparing themselves to those around them. In that sense, then, being part of the “in” crowd, or the group that is on top is by definition a zero-sum game.
2) There is this psychological effect called “lens vision.” People CRAVE stability in their lives, and especially in their perspective of the world. Partisan identification starts to develop in childhood before most people are capable of seriously vetting issues. Then, later, when they are confronted with a statistic or an argument that undermines the supremacy of their choice, they subconsciously look for a way to justify retention of their partisan ideology. The result is that in a world where sociopolitical issues are complex, it is very difficult to change someone’s partisan identity. When people’s partisan identity DOES change, it is usually because it didn’t mesh well with that of the people around them.
In other words, partisan ideology is as at least as much about identity and social relationships as it is about actual issues.
In that context, it should not be hard to see how the story unfolds: In the information age, as it becomes increasingly possible for people to segregate into communities where they only live near people that are like them, where it is possible to only get news from news sources that don’t piss you off (news sources that match your ideology), people begin to experience an amplified “echo chamber” effect: The people around you, the news, and your own gut all tell you the same thing, and they all reflect and amplify eachother, reinforcing your partisan identity and your lens vision, and generating increasingly strong sentiments about political issues.
Due to your partisan tunnel vision, you don’t realize that you haven’t actually thoroughly vetted a lot of the things that you say. You aren’t particularly careful about how you say what you say, since you are already pretty sure that you are right.
HERE’S THE KICKER: People in the other party are going through the same process. They are certain that they are right. They are overly certain about the things that they say, and don’t adequately vet themselves.
Then, people from opposing partisan ideologies get into a conversation, and it quickly escalates. Over multiple conversations, dormant emotional memories arise irrationally to the surface and cause increasingly quick emotional escalation. The more emotions rise, the less the parties bother to vet themselves, and the less credence they give to the other party’s opinions and perceptions. In other words, they trust themselves MORE and the other party LESS. Since this process is occurring on both sides, it becomesincreasingly difficult to find compromise, because you are both demanding an extraordinary burden of proof from eachother both to prove one’s own point, AND to dissuade the other from his/her irrational position. You both rightly feel that the other party is being unfair, and you eventually give up and go back to your echo chamber to complain.
CONCLUSION
To a greater or lesser extent, this cycle of doom is responsible for the increasing partisan rancor in the United States. There are a lot of factors, but they all seem to feed on eachother. In the end, it is hardly surprising that you end up with a shockingly large percentage of Republicans who believe the most asinine things about President Obama, and have actual hatred for a man that they have never even met.
If nothing else, they hear infuriating things about him on a near-daily basis from their colleagues, friends, news sources, and (Republican) elected representatives. They can’t understand how he can believe such infuriating liberal nonsense, or they see him as the face of hypocrisy and greed (redistribution). Perhaps they see him as a threat (or a representation of a threat) to their lifestyle. Perhaps they believe that HE hates THEM.
I fancy myself as a fairly intelligent, even-tempered person, and an experienced debater. But even I have difficulty sometimes with keeping political discussions cool and focused. For people who are not experienced, or who are less intent on keeping the discussion under control, it is hardly surprising that emotions accelerate and leave ordinary americans spitting bile at one another.

President Obama SHOULD Make Death a Taxable Event

8 Feb

I recently stumbled across a Forbes article complaining that President Obama would like to make death a taxable event. The article was referencing a January 17th, 2015 press release that called for, among other things, a new realization event when appreciated property is received by gift or bequest.

Vocabulary

In tax law terminology, if you own property that increases in value (or “appreciates”), you have “income” because your net wealth has increased. But, the tax code doesn’t usually make you “realize” that income (and pay taxes on it) until you actually sell the property and “realize” the income.

Why? We are concerned that you won’t have money to pay the tax, or the value of the property might go back down before you sell it, or we didn’t have an easy way of accurately measuring its value in the first place. It just wouldn’t be feasible or enforceable.

The tax law has both “realization” events and “recognition” events. You have to both realize income and have the tax law recognize that you realized the income, otherwise you don’t have to pay tax — yet.

The amount of money you pay for a property is its “basis.” Basis gets adjusted by certain things, and so your “adjusted basis” is supposed to represent your investment in a property. The actual fair market value of the property minus the basis equals the amount of income/gain that is built into the property, and which can be realized/recognized at an appropriate event.

So what is the problem? 

Americans decided long ago that 1) people shouldn’t pay taxes at death; and 2) the heirs shouldn’t have to pay taxes on appreciation that occurred when they didn’t have control of the appreciated property. Hence, the “stepped-up basis” rule. When you die, the basis in the property is automatically “stepped up” to fair market value at the time of death.

Ordinarily, realization and recognition rules only ever delay taxation on income. But, the stepped-up basis rule means that if you can hold off on selling those stocks of Apple that you bought back in the 1980’s long enough, then neither you, nor anyone you know or love will EVER have to pay taxes on your gains.

Take, for example, a hypothetical guy named Larry. Larry decides to found a massive corporation and call it Moracal. Since he built it from the ground up, his basis in his personal Moracal shares is approximately $0. Decades later, Larry’s net worth is around $50 billion. But Larry is getting old. He knows that if he can just hold out for a few more decades, he will have built a massive empire to last his family through the next, say, 20 generations+, all without ever paying any income tax whatsoever.

Suppose Larry wants to buy an island. He locates one that costs about $1 billion. Larry would have to sell over $1.2 billion worth of shares in order to generate $1 billion in after-(capital gains) tax return. Then, he would have to fork over about $250 million to the government. Larry would rather have his kids inherit that $250 million. So, Larry decides to take out a loan from his friend, Bill, instead. Larry agrees to pay 5% interest (capitalized into the loan), with the full principle and any accumulated debt payable one year after Larry’s death. Larry puts up $1 billion of Oracle stock as security for the loan. Larry has successfully purchased his island and avoided paying any income taxes ever. In fact, if Larry wants to, Larry can set up shop and run a tourism business on his personal island to help defray the interest expense from his $1 billion loan.

So what is the solution?

There are a number of possible solutions.

  1. We could put a cap on the amount of time that an asset could appreciate without being taxed (say ten years or five years).
  2. We could simply tax all gain every year, and do away with these rules.
  3. When we DO finally collect taxes, we could charge interest on any tax that might have been levied, but was instead deferred (this is actually the best solution, in my book, for reasons that I will explain in a later post; in particular, it would seriously undermine the current incentives to waste billions of dollars on clever tax-planning).
  4. Or, we could get rid of the stepped-up basis rule and make billionaires who have deferred taxes their entire lives finally pay a tax on their estate when they die.

So what is wrong with this last solution, which Obama has proposed? 

Nothing. There’s not a damn thing wrong with it, unless you happen to be a billionaire looking for ways to avoid ever paying a fair tax on your income.

As previously mentioned, I have plenty of other ideas about how the tax code could be improved. But that simply isn’t and can never be a criticism of a completely rational, non-partisan, sensible, and obvious solution to a single, discrete problem in the tax code.

There is HOW much money in the 2016 campaign? Where? Who? What? Why?

2 Aug

“Never before has so much money been donated by such a small number of people so early.” – Washington Post

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama each raised about $1 billion total during the 2012 race, including Super Pacs, the RNC, and the DNC. In 2012, Mitt Romney’s Super Pacs raised a total of $225.4 million, while Barack Obama’s raised $91.5 million. 

The Money

Last Updated: 8/1/2015

Total 2016: $418.2 million

Super Pac Total: $288.4 million

Super Pac %: 68.96%

Republican Super Pacs Total: $272.5 million

Republican Super Pac Percent: 94.49%

Democratic Super Pacs Total: $15.9 million

Democratic Super Pac Percent: 5.51%

Campaign Total: $129.8 million

Campaign Percent: 31.04%

Republican Campaigns Total: $67 million

Republican Campaigns Percent: 51.62%

Democratic Campaigns Total: $62.8 million

Democratic Campaigns Percent: 48.38%

Number of donors who have shelled out more than $1 million dollars apiece: 58

Total amount contributed by million-dollar-plus donors: $120 million

Percentage of total contributed to super pacs by million-dollar-plus donors: 28.69%

Top 3 Donors

1) Robert Mercer, New York hedge-fund manager

Total donated: $11 m

Candidate: Ted Cruz (R)

2) Toby Neugebauer, Houston private equity investor

Total donated: $10 m

Candidate: Ted Cruz (R)

3) Kelcy Warren, Dallas energy executive; national finance chairman for Rick Perry’s campaign

Total donated: $6 m

Candidate: Rick Perry (R)

Top 10 Candidates

1) Jeb Bush (R) 

Total: $119.9 m

Super Pac: $108.5 m

Super Pac %: 90.49%

2) Hillary Clinton (D) 

Total: $62.7 m

Super Pac: $15.6 m

Super Pac %: 24.88%

3) Ted Cruz (R)

Total: $52.1 m

Super Pac: $37.8 m

Super Pac %: 72.55%

4) Marco Rubio (R) 

Total: $45.2 m

Super Pac: $33.1 m

Super Pac %: 73.23%

5) Scott Walker (R) 

Total: $26.2 m

Super Pac: $26.2 m

Super Pac %: 100%

6) Bernie Sanders (D) 

Total: $15.1 m

Super Pac: $0

Super Pac %: 0%

7) Chris Christie (R) 

Total: $14.4 m

Super Pac: $14.4 m

Super Pac %: 100%

8) Rick Perry (R) 

Total: $13.9 m

Super Pac: $12.8 m

Super Pac %: 92.09%

9) Rand Paul (R) 

Total: $13.1 m

Super Pac: $6.2 m

Super Pac %: 47.33%

10) John Kasich (R) 

Total: $11.5 m

Super Pac: $11.5 m

Super Pac %: 100%

Source

The Ridiculousness of the Republican Opposition to the Iran Deal

15 Jul

This week’s hyperpartisan meltdown has been replaced by a boring article that just rips into Republican’s in general for their response to the Iran deal. If that fact makes you sad, then sound off in the comments, and perhaps you’ll get a pleasant surprise on Friday. 

1) Republicans unabashedly denounced the Iran deal in scathing terms without having read it, without their staff even having read it. 

The 100-page deal was released at 6:30 AM via an EU site that soon crashed. Within an hour of the conclusion of negotiations, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) had this to say, “This is the most dangerous, irresponsible step I have ever seen in the history of watching the Mideast.”

a) Remember how upset those same politicians were that Democrats voted on the ACA without having personally read it?

2) Republicans haven’t offered a real world alternative, because there isn’t one. Instead, they compare what Obama got to the hypothetical magical world where the USA gets everything on its wish-list without giving up anything.

Let’s go through the possible choices that the US has. 1) We accept this deal. 2) We do nothing and let Iran develop its nuclear weapons. 3) We go to war with Iran. 4) We reject this deal, strengthen our sanctions, and keep negotiating until Iran cracks.

The last choice is the one that most Republicans seem to be citing as the answer. The problem is that we actually don’t do a lot of trade with Iran. The sanctions that could/do really hurt Iran are the ones that are or might be imposed by our European partners, by China, and by Russia. The other countries that are sanctioning Iran are not interested in continuing them, let alone strengthening them, should negotiations break down. In other words, if we pick this option, what we are really picking is almost certainly: “do nothing and let Iran develop nukes,” “do nothing now and go to war later and hope Iran doesn’t develop nukes,” or “do nothing now and sign a much worse deal with Iran later, again, hoping that Iran doesn’t develop nukes.”

Conclusion

The deal is certainly not perfect. Several democrats have criticized it or vowed to take a close look before supporting it. The Washington Post’s “view” was not exactly complimentary. The deal may very well create a headache for US foreign policy in the future, as Iran becomes even more of a regional power. Iran may ultimately still develop its nuclear capacity in problematic ways. However, it could also form the basis of a new era of American-Iranian foreign policy, where we finally have a toe in the door to talk with Iran about maybe making its society just a little bit less awful to women and minorities, to maybe get them to tackle government corruption just a little bit, and maybe migrate to a form of government that is more pluralistic and functional, and maybe a little bit less angry, aggressive, and incendiary. Maybe, by being nice and understanding of Iran’s culture, needs, and ambitions, we can ultimately make the world just a little bit better place.

At the very least, though, at least now we have staved off a nuclear holocaust for a few years. THAT, at least, is worth something.

As usual, feel free to share your thoughts on the partisan BS this country wades through every day in the comments below. Also, if you have a pet issue you’d like to hear my thoughts on, post it!