New Music From Lady Gaga; Early Stats

Lady Gaga just released a new music video. To see how it’s doing after its first 18 hours of release, take a peak at the numbers I just crunched over on Music Industry Sandbox.

Check Out my New Blog, Music Industry Sandbox; Haley Reinhart’s New Material

I’ve set up the first of a series of independent blogs in the Sometimes Profound Network. Sometimes Profound has had a very large scope in the past, covering just about everything I find interesting enough to write about. I think it is time to subdivide the blog, so that people who are interested specifically in the intense coverage of the music industry and specific artists can get that, while people who are interested in something else, don’t have to sift through what they are not interested in.

Music Industry Sandbox is a place for numbers geeks and superfans to geek out about the music industry and specific artists within it. It is a place for cranking out numbers, making predictions, and compiling information beyond the scope of what is generally available on, say, a wikipedia page.

If you are interested, you can check out one of my first blog posts introducing Haley Reinhart, who, in my opinion, is the most talented vocalist to ever come off of American Idol. While most Idol alums fade into obscurity after their first album’s initial sales bump immediately after the show, Haley has landed a gig voicing a little boy on a Netflix animated series, she has conquered the internet with a stunning cover of Radiohead’s “Creep,” and she has crowd-sourced sufficient funding to release an EP and a single on her own terms and in her own style. I don’t know that she will ever be at home on Billboard’s Pop or Hot 100 charts, but for people who appreciate actual vocal talent and original, interesting, non-formulaic music, Haley is someone to watch.

Haley Reinhart to Release New EP & Single

I will probably post links to some articles from Music Industry Sandbox here for a while, while it is still getting on its feet. But, ultimately, if you want that content, you are going to have to subscribe to that blog. Pretty much my entire Music Industry category is migrating.

Peace.

Suspension of Political Coverage; Adam Lambert Earns New Peak on the Hot 100

I will be suspending coverage of politics and political issues on this blog effective immediately in order to avoid the appearance of impropriety. I have recently been appointed and sworn in to the high post of Intern for a Federal Judge. Literally, I was sworn in. So now, I have an oath to uphold the Constitution and a duty to keep my lips sealed. I pretty much have no opinions on anything in writing until December.

For now, everyone enjoy the Wednesday Republican debate, where Carly Fiorina is scheduled to attempt a take-down of Donald Trump after he said something unkind about her face. If nothing else, it should at least be better than most other reality television shows.

In other news, in its lucky thirteenth week, Adam Lambert’s new single “Ghost Town” gains eight slots and reaches a new peak on the Billboard Hot 100. Do you think it’s a fluke, or is this song a hit? Have a listen here and share your thoughts in the comments below.

Rick Perry Drops out of the Presidential Race

Per the Washington Post, Texas Governor Rick Perry has suspended his campaign, effectively ending his second run at the Whitehouse. Realclearpolitics.com’s polling average has Perry in 13th place, with an average of 0.8% of the vote. In the most recent poll, from CNN/ORC, Perry came in last with only 0% of the vote after rounding.

Rick Perry enjoyed a brief moment in the sun as the Republican frontrunner during the month of September the year before the 2012 Presidential election.

“Another Lonely Night” is the New Single from Adam Lambert

First there were murmurings from South Africa. Then, the song started heating up Polish iTunes and radio as youtube views started taking off. Now, finally, Adam Lambert’s new single is hitting British radio. Here is a tweet from a radio station in Wales:

@redroadmornings We are back! with your requests, a brand new big tune of the week from @adamlambert, a new album of the week from @EllaEyre and a lot more!

This, while “Ghost Town” is still one of the 25 most shazammed songs in the world, and the #36 most shazammed song in the USA.

Adam will likely wait for “Ghost Town” to peak before releasing “Another Lonely Night” in the USA, but it is a clear choice for the next single, and its selection in several other countries (including, apparently, the U.K. now) strongly implies that it will be the next single off the album back here in the USA as well.

“Another Lonely Night” has already overtaken “Ghost Town” on the South African and Polish shazam charts, giving Adam Lambert simultaneously two of the 25 most shazammed songs in Poland. In the USA, “Ghost Town” rises #24-#23 on pop radio airplay (by audience impressions) today, and looks like it will rise to a new peak of #22 tomorrow.

Gay Icon Adam Lambert’s New Single Finds Huge Success in… Russia?

That’s right. The people who ban “gay propaganda” apparently have a penchant for gender-bending pop stars (take a peak at this popular 2010 music video). Keep in mind that both gay icons Madonna and Lady Gaga made waves when they spoke out on the subject during sold-out concerts. Methinks a little bit of the repression may be partly to blame?

Top40-charts.com currently lists “Ghost Town” as the #5 biggest song in Russia. As out.com points out, however, top40-charts.com isn’t the most reputable of charting organizations, and doesn’t disclose its methodology publicly. So, lets take a quick peak at some other sources.

Shazam

If you hear a song on the radio that you like but don’t recognize, you can get out your phone and use an app to get the song’s info. Shazam is a wonder of the modern era, and for our purposes, provides an extremely useful charting service that gives a uniquely valuable glimpse at the amount of “buzz” a new song actually generates in actual people. For some perspective, the most shazammed song ever got 20 million shazams. 103 songs have at least 5 million lifetime shazams. The #1 song in the USA right now, The Weeknd’s “Can’t Feel My Face,” has 3.8 million shazams, which is currently at #4 on the US shazam chart. The Weeknd’s next single, “The Hills,” which recently rose into the top 5 on the US Hot 100, currently occupies the #1 slot on the US shazam chart. “Ghost Town” has 2.5 million global shazams and currently sits at #36 on the US shazam chart (it rose #77-#74 on this week’s US Billboard Hot 100). It is also #7 on the global shazam pop chart and #22 on the overall global shazam chart.

“Ghost Town” is currently the #10 most shazammed song in Russia. So, that is consistent with it being a pretty buzzy single there.

iTunes

Daily Russian iTunes positions for “Ghost Town,” Aug. 10-Sept. 4, 2015 (“Ghost Town” was #42 on 8/10 and #44 on 9/4): 69, 62, 72, 23, 32, 26, 29, 25, 23, 22, 42, 36, 21, 29, 38, 25, 23, 21, 38, 36, 28, 36, 36, 49, 44

 

Presumably, the top40-charts was referencing the tracking week from August 21 through August 27. During that time frame, “Ghost Town” occupied an average position of #31 on Russian iTunes.

Conclusion

Top40-charts.com may have exaggerated Adam’s current popularity in Russia somewhat. However, “Ghost Town” clearly has momentum in the Russian market. Russians with smart phones, at least, are shazamming it regularly, and iTunes figures are strong and prolonged.

Additionally, “Ghost Town” has become a legitimate hit in numerous other countries, peaking at #2 in Australia, and #1 in Poland, and charting in dozens of other countries. United World Chart (which IS a reputable charting organization by my estimation) has ranked “Ghost Town” as one of the 50 biggest global hits for three weeks in a row now. It is currently charting in the US on Billboard’s pop and adult pop formats. It’s doing all right.

The Government Spends More than $250 Billion/Year Subsidizing Healthcare for the Wealthy

What is the biggest tax break in the US tax code? Mortgage interest deduction? Charitable deduction? Big oil? Capital gains? No, no, no, and no. The biggest tax break in the entire code is the tax asylum for employer-sponsored health insurance. If you get health insurance through your employer, you get a good chunk of compensation completely tax-free. Or, in other words, the government is subsidizing your healthcare. You might think that is a good thing for Joe Shmoe Americano. I’m here to tell you why it is not.

America has a marginal, progressive income taxation system.

What does that mean?

If you are a single individual, and you made $50,000 last year, then your marginal tax rate is 25%. But, you don’t pay 25% of your (taxable) income as tax. Rather, you pay 10% of your first $9,225, 15% of your $28,225, and 25% of your final $12,549. So, your average tax rate is going to be substantially less than 25%. But, if you made $1 more, then you would have to pay $0.25 in additional taxes. Make sense?

2015 Tax Brackets for Individual Taxpayers

Joe Shmoe is not paying into the highest tax bracket–at the federal level.

Joe Shmoe makes $50,000/year. At least 95% of single adult Americans make less than $90,000/year, and therefore never touch a marginal tax rate higher than 25%. Almost half of Americans don’t pay federal income tax at all, although they still end up paying a substantial share of other taxes, many of which are regressive, especially at the state and local level. Of state and local taxes, the bottom 20% actually pay double the effective tax rate of the top 1% of income-earners.

In other words, almost half of Americans, the poorest half, are denied access to the biggest tax break in the tax code.

The higher the marginal tax rate you are paying, the more of your health insurance is being subsidized by Uncle Ben.

If you make $500,000/year, then you currently pay some of your income into the highest marginal tax bracket, 39.6%. Suppose you were shopping between two health insurance plans. One cost $10,000, and had an expected value to you of about $11,000. The other cost $20,000, and had an expected value to you of $18,000. Which are you going to choose? Now, what if I told you that the government would subsidize 40% of the cost? You are now picking between a $6000 plan that is subjectively worth $11,000 (for a consumer surplus/profit of $5000), and a $12,000 plan that is subjectively worth $18,000 (for a consumer surplus/profit of $6000). The plan that has a net negative total value for society (because it benefits you only $18,000, while having an actual cost of $20,000) is the plan that you choose. Why? Because the government is subsidizing a large chunk of the cost, and it has a bigger price tag.

You should be able to see where this is going. The wealthy, who pay some of their income at high marginal tax brackets, have a perverse incentive to overspend on health insurance policies, even inefficient ones, at tax-payer expense. The poor and the lower middle class, meanwhile, who maybe could actually use subsidized healthcare, are left out. Even those who do work for an employer that provides health insurance are left out of the primary benefit of the tax break because they aren’t being taxed at a high marginal rate in the first place.

Conclusion

Joe Shmoe is getting a modest tax break/subsidy. But Richy Rich is getting a much larger subsidy, even if he gets the exact same insurance. Of course, Richy Rich can probably afford slightly better insurance than Joe Shmoe, especially with the bigger subsidy, and he is strongly incentivized to take full advantage of the tax break to do so. Meanwhile, Poor Guy down the street doesn’t get any subsidy at all, even if he happens to get health insurance through his employer. That part of the problem, at least, was rectified in part by the Affordable Care Act. But, we still have a system that gives increasingly large tax breaks to the increasingly wealthy top percentiles of our nation, and that just ain’t right.

“Fancy” v. “Problem” – Which is the Real Song of Summer 2014?

In the early part of the summer of 2014, “Problem,” by Ariana Grande feat. Iggy Azalea sat in the #2 slot behind “Fancy” (Iggy Azalea feat. Charli XCX) for five weeks, and ultimately was declared the runner up Song of the Summer. When Fancy managed to hold onto the #1 slot for two additional weeks after “Problem” fell out of the top two, I was forced to concede that “Fancy” was definitively the stronger hit. But, if you look at the youtube view counts of the two music videos today, you will notice that “Problem” has recently overtaken “Fancy,” and that its lead is rapidly growing (to the tune of 300,000 views/day).

So, is “Fancy” really the bigger hit, in hindsight? 

To answer this question, we are going to need to look at what has driven the view disparity. But first:

The story of the view battle.

“Fancy” was released in early March, and it steadily built radio airplay, sales, and streaming until it neared the apex of the Hot 100. Just as it was about to claim the throne on the strength of a substantial 222,000 sales, Ariana Grande released her new single, “Problem,” and garnered an astonishing 438,000 sales in the span of a single week, the most since Katy Perry’s “Roar” had debuted at #1 a year earlier. As “Fancy” narrowly fended off “Problem” for the crown of the Hot 100, “Problem” ‘s star-powered start at youtube quickly eclipsed “Fancy” ‘s budding view-count.

But all was not lost. “Fancy” had clawed its way to the apex of the Hot 100, and on the strength of established radio airplay, it clawed its way ahead of “Problem” on youtube, and slowly regained its air of superiority.

For five weeks, “Fancy” held the top spot on the Hot 100 over “Problem,” despite rapidly increasing radio airplay for the latter and continued strong sales. But then “Problem” ‘s sales finally began to falter as its airplay peaked, and it succumbed to ascendant hit “Rude” by Magic!. After holding the top slot for two more weeks, “Fancy” was able to claim the prized title of “Song of Summer 2014,” over respective runner-ups “Problem,” and “Rude.”

Iggy Azalea later released a fitting song called “Iggy SZN” (pronounced Iggy season). It really was Iggy season. She had taken her first two Hot 100 hits to #s 1 and 2 concurrently for numerous weeks. Then, she starred in a followup single, “Black Widow” feat. Rita Ora, that peaked at #3. Her “Fancy” co-collaborator, Charli XCX, meanwhile, released another top ten hit, “Boom Clap,” while Ariana Grande enjoyed the spotlight of several more hits. Iggy was hot. Until she was not.

Iggy had several singles flop. She had numerous social media beefs and flare-ups that garnered negative media attention. She was accused of being racist, or at least racially insensitive, partly due to her assimilation of a “blaccent” for her hit song “Fancy.” She canceled her tour because she “wanted it to be perfect.” But some people insinuated that it was due to low ticket sales. Then, her intended recovery hit single with Britney Spears, “Pretty Girls” flopped. To top off injury with insult, her prized single, “Fancy,” which had once accumulated about a 40 million view lead over “Problem,” was finally surpassed in views by the runner-up song of the summer of 2014.

Of course, Iggy gets the consolation prize of having been a featured artist on “Problem,” but really, it was an Ariana song. So, maybe the negativity surrounding Iggy helped depress her view count a bit, mostly, I think that is just by preventing her future singles from becoming smashes that could drive continued traffic back to “Fancy.”

“Fancy” views were boosted by “Black Widow” and maybe “Boom Clap,” but Iggy and Charli haven’t had any hits since then. Ariana has had several hits since then, the most recent peaking only a few months ago.

If you have a music video on your page that generates 1 or 2 million views/day, then it should come as no surprise that the other videos on your page might see a small boost because of it (say, 100,000/d). In a collapsing major hit like “Problem” or “Fancy,” you might not notice the bump much, as it might simply keep the song afloat at current view levels longer.

Iggy and Charli each had a second top ten hit on the Billboard Hot 100 last summer, with “Black Widow,” and “Boom Clap.” But, since then, they haven’t really had anything majorly successful. Iggy teamed up with Britney Spears for a “Pretty Girls” video that got strong initial views, but after the song flopped at radio (with seriously terrible audience ratings), the youtube views collapsed. Still, it was generating over 1 million views for quite a while, and it likely helped “Fancy” ‘s view-count a bit.

Ariana Grande, on the other hand, has had a steady stream of hits. “Bang Bang” and “Break Free” peaked in the top 5, “Love Me Harder” peaked at #7, and “One Last Time” peaked at #13 as recently as early May. She also released a Christmas song, “Santa Tell Me” that was getting about 1 million views/day before the season ended.

Finally, you have to keep in mind that everything Iggy Azalea has done has benefited the “Problem” music video (on which she was featured) as well as the “Fancy” video, whereas Ariana’s star power has been focused on “Problem” ‘s success.

So, the driver of “Problem” ‘s youtube view-count success is more “Ariana Grande post-hoc star power” and less “strength of ‘Problem’ as an actual hit.”

Conclusion

My verdict: “Fancy” is still the bigger hit.

“Fancy” pulled two largely unknown artists from oblivion to international stardom through its shear awesomeness. “Problem” was a huge it, and deservedly so. It capitalized on Ariana’s pre-existing popularity perfectly, and started a sequence of hit singles for her. It is easily her biggest hit to date. But, ultimately, it sat behind “Fancy” on the Hot 100 for five weeks in a row before collapsing. It has managed to pull into the lead on total youtube views, but that is due primarily to post-hoc star power, not due to the strength of the single itself. And, Iggy’s star power has been split between the two competing singles, so it was never really a fair race to begin with.

In hindsight, “Fancy,” by Iggy Azalea feat. Charli XCX remains the Song of Summer 2014!

Mormon (LDS) Church to Continue Boy Scouts Because They Can Still Discriminate Locally.

The Deseret News reported simply that the LDS Church had decided to continue its boy scout program (despite its recent decision to stop discriminating against LGBT scout leaders). But this is not the progressive, enlightened move that it might seem on first glance. The Church states:

In the resolution adopted on July 27, 2015, and in subsequent verbal assurances to us, BSA has reiterated that it expects those who sponsor Scouting units (such as the Church) to appoint Scout leaders according to their religious and moral values ‘in word and deed and who will best inculcate the organization’s values through the Scouting program.’ At this time, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints will go forward as a chartering organization of BSA, and as in the past, will appoint Scout leaders and volunteers who uphold and exemplify Church doctrine, values, and standards.

In other words, the LDS church can still pick local scout leaders based on its own standards of morality. Hmm… I wonder what the Church’s standards are on the morality of homosexuality. Has that changed recently? No? Oh. Ok. So, the Church is conceding only that it is not going to throw a tissy fit about gay scout leaders in other people’s troups.

I’m proud of you, Church, for not acting like a spoiled child. Congratulations. This is absolutely the moment that we have all been waiting for. 

This is seriously breaking, headline news. Church did not throw tissy fit. Seriously?

 

Why Can’t the LDS Church be Progressive?

The LDS church claims to have over 13 million members worldwide (although that figure counts people like me who simply haven’t yet bothered to tell them in writing that we think it is a bunch of BS, so a more legitimate figure is probably less than half that). It has been around for almost 200 years, now. That is nothing compared to, say, Catholicism. But even in that period of time, the Church is already doing logical summersaults to try to keep its story straight and to therefore retain a semblance of legitimacy.

Mormon theology depends on absolutes. The Church is either true, or it is not. Either everything that they “know” to be true is true, or it is ALL a bunch of BS. Either Mormon men actually channel the power of the priesthood, or they do not. The leaders of the church put themselves in a foxhole when they made homosexuality absolutely immoral. Now, either homosexuality is immoral, and should continue to be fought against, or Joseph Smith was never visited by two pillars of light that solidified into holy beings. The Church can’t take it back and still retain legitimacy in the eyes of any rational human being. Luckily for the church, it has a lot of irrational believers. But, it would still take a pretty big hit.

Category-Specific Mailing Lists Coming Soon

I will be adding category-specific mailing lists in the near future so that loyal readers can be notified only when a post comes out that they care about. For now, if you would like to be placed on one of these lists, please email me privately at sometimesprofound@gmail.com.